Books – Political Editor
Just as the earth’s crust is displaced under the pressure of the interactions of the lava underground and quakes those on it, the interests of states interact and contradict and their forces displace those who are weaker, in an endless jostling movement, while the young remain a theater of operations and a fund for paying bills.. This is roughly what is happening now between Russia and Western countries on the The waters of the Black Sea, which apparently began to see a remarkable boiling.
Since the advocates of the victory of Western civilization and the end of the world cheered the fall of the Soviet Union, the strategic decision-making circles in the Atlantic Alliance, led by the United States, have calmed down, reassuring a world that is its only pole. Ensures her standing under the adult umbrella.
These contradictions have resulted in proxy wars in more than one part of the geography of the unipolar world, and perhaps the Black Sea region today reflects one of the hottest spots that have accumulated on a less than calm fire, fueled by the aspirations of the Russians and European energy sources that are mortgaged to them, and countries whose lands gas pipelines pass through. As for fear for human rights, democracy, the arms race, and the militarization of space, each has a ready fuse waiting for a match.
Recent weeks have witnessed a rise in the Western countries’ interest in what is happening in Ukraine and Belarus, as multi-faceted crises have emerged at once in Russia’s relations with its neighbors in the West. Some Biden administration officials fear that Russia may have stoked tensions as a prelude to another incursion into Ukraine, while others believe it is part of a larger influence game.
Western reports indicate that the Black Sea is likely to be the arena of military conflict and energy wars, as American strategic circles considered it the most important front line in competition with the Russians, which highlights the increase in NATO’s military presence with the aim of raising the level of regional security there.
In addition, a report issued by the European Council on Foreign Relations stressed the need to prevent Moscow from using its influence in the Black Sea region to blackmail its small states. Perhaps this is what was revealed by the recent moves, as it seemed that European countries had suddenly and extensively focused their attention on what is happening on the border between Belarus and Poland, which they considered a direct threat to their security.
Moscow… a provocation
For its part, Moscow sensed the danger and rushed to strengthen its military presence on the border with Ukraine, where the number of its forces there exceeded 100,000 soldiers. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin was concerned about NATO’s military activity in the Black Sea.
During a telephone conversation with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, Putin considered that the military exercises conducted by the United States and NATO in the Black Sea constituted a “provocation.”
The Kremlin issued a statement saying: “We are watching the dangerous and destabilizing nature of the provocative activity of the United States and a number of NATO countries in the Black Sea.”
Earlier this month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu referred to what is happening in the Black Sea, saying: “When a warship from a country outside the Black Sea enters and we realize that it is carrying precision-guided weapons while it is not on a tour, we monitor it closely. We follow them and are aware that provocations can occur at any time, as was the case recently with the British destroyer, and we must be vigilant to control such moves.”
Moscow views such provocations as a test of its willingness to respond. Perhaps this explains why the Russian army launched warning bombs in pursuit of a British speedboat that entered what Moscow considers territorial waters off the coast of Crimea.
Indeed, US naval activities in the Black Sea further escalate tensions in the region. According to media reports, the US command ship USS Mount Whitney and the frigate USS Porter are conducting joint patrols in the Black Sea. It was reported in American diplomatic circles that American ships were present in the region to support the NATO allies.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin traveled to Romania, Georgia and Ukraine in October to reassure Washington’s allies in the face of escalating military tensions with Moscow.
After the explosion of the refugee crisis in Belarus, the Westerners sensed a certain danger on the horizon regarding Russia’s actions towards its neighbors. Senior US diplomats met with Russian officials. CIA Director Bill Burns traveled to Moscow earlier this month, where he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And US diplomats began extensive contacts with Europe about a potential Russian threat.
Escalating US military activities around Ukraine have turned into a new “red line” for Moscow.
“There are very dark clouds on the horizon,” said Michael Kaufman, director of Russia studies at the US Naval Studies Center. He explained that the problem facing the US military is how to show solidarity with Ukraine and be ready to stand up to possible Russian aggression without provoking the escalation that it is keen to avoid in the first place.
Rob Lee, a retired Marine Corps officer and Russia expert, said the most likely explanation for the Russian military’s moves was that it was a message to tell the United States and NATO that they should avoid accelerating the path of Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO, selling U.S. arms, or imposing New sanctions against Russia.
In sum, the Black Sea has become an arena for global arm-twisting, at a time when each party is keen not to take a step that forces it to take steps back in the competition for world leadership, and the multi-faceted crises, both artificial and non-fabricated, are expected to test a set of hypotheses, the most important of which is the durability The Russian-Chinese alliance in the face of “NATO” and its allies, and Russia’s readiness alone to reveal the extent of the development of its arsenal, a readiness whose first features appeared in the process of destroying the satellite in space, which may transfer the conflict to a hotter stage, and the days are pregnant.