The files in the region and the world are intertwined in a way that is difficult to separate from each other, and the matter requires going towards cooling the inflamed atmosphere since the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” wars.
Regional and international events are accelerating to confirm a new path for Syria, after a major war that exceeded more than 10 years, while all concerted indicators confirm that we are facing a new international situation different from all the previous stage, and that Syria is facing real regional and international transformations that allow it to walk the path back to normal life.
Despite the leaks suggestive of a change in the American vision towards the Syrian issue, especially after the arrival of the new American administration, which is laden with concerns about the internal American division, which may lead the Americans toward a second civil war, in addition to rearranging its priorities towards the real threat represented by the continued rise of China’s international standing, And with Russia, which was unable to find a real partnership with the West, these indications were delayed a few months, but they began to appear in succession, to confirm that the meeting between Putin and Biden on June 16 of this year, which launched the starting signal to change Washington’s position, And with it the Western capitals, and the turn towards dealing with the Syrian file from the ground of realities on the ground, and the dangers of the eastern Mediterranean region sliding further towards a major regional war with “Israel” as the only way out towards a return to normal life.
Daraa was the beginning towards the end of the war in Syria, as it was its beginning, as an indication of reversing the Syrian path. New reconciliation conditions were imposed with full Jordanian cooperation, after Jordanian King Abdullah II’s visit to Washington, and the recognition that President Assad’s survival is a fait accompli that cannot be bypassed.
And things did not end locally, but rather extended regionally and internationally, especially in the meeting of Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad with 7 Arab foreign ministers at the United Nations, the most important of whom is the Foreign Minister of Egypt, whose capital is Cairo, in preparation for Syria’s return to it.
The files in the region and the world are intertwined in a way that is difficult to separate from each other, and the matter requires going towards cooling the inflamed atmosphere since the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” wars. During the two decades, since the invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, and ending with the still unfinished war in Syria and Yemen, in addition to the vexing nuclear file of “Tel Aviv”, Washington and the rest of the capitals that shelter under the American umbrella.
Despite the beginning of the path in Syria towards exiting the war, and the emergence of an American-Russian consensus on the necessity of looking at Syria from the angle of the growing threats, Idlib remains the biggest problem facing Syria to reach safety, due to the great complications of this file, as it is like a festering abscess that is feared to explode. And it needs precise surgical treatment to get rid of it, especially with the presence of foreign armed groups from the Uyghurs, Uzbeks, Chechnya and the rest of the nationalities, and if they return to their country, they pose major security risks, especially to China, Russia and the rest of the countries of Central Asia, and with it Europe. It has turned into an intractable international problem that requires careful international cooperation, especially since the available solution options are limited.
Idlib was the main issue that prompted the meeting of Presidents Putin – Assad, and after that the meeting between Presidents Putin – Erdogan, in recognition by everyone that the lack of cooperation of Turkey and Syria to solve the Idlib problem will not reach a result, which is a very difficult matter for President Erdogan, who is still So far, he deals with his international relations, especially with Russia, from the principle of parity emanating from his ideological and historical nationalist belief in his right and his country with a great international prestige.
Erdogan cannot retreat from the occupation of Idlib, and he is the one who kept talking about the Milli Charter of 1920, and the emotional borders of the Turkish state, and he who lost Egypt, Sudan, Tunisia and Morocco, after the failure of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in these countries to change in the interest of the American project, in addition to Libya, which In it, new omens of failure appeared to him, especially after the facts of geography strengthened Egypt’s role in it with Emirati support and a Russian role in aid of the American absence from the Libyan event, and he had only 3 cards left in his hands in Syria, Iraq and the South Caucasus.
The Syrian north remains the most important, as it is the main entrance to the transition from the use of soft power to hard power, in addition to the presence of more than 100,000 Syrian and foreign fighters that Erdogan can use to achieve his ambitions in Central Asia and the rest of the world, and he cannot return to Turkey at home. As a result of the great economic decline and the low level of wages and the monopoly of all powers, after the great adventures in the geography of the Ottoman Empire, which collapsed 100 years ago.
It is clear that the Putin-Erdogan meeting in Sochi did not lead to the expected result, as Erdogan realized that Moscow could not impose any of the policies on Ankara, unless there was a great American-Russian consensus to pressure him and force him to retreat and get rid of the Idlib problem, and only America is able to push This option is mainly related to the American project and NATO, and the ability of the US administration to exert more economic pressure on Turkey, which needs the influx of Western investments again, after it reached two trillion dollars before, and it is in dire need to raise the level of the Turkish economy before the presidential elections. In the year 2023, which coincides with the 100th anniversary of the Treaty of Lausanne.
It is also clear that Erdogan is betting on his upcoming meeting with Joe Biden at the end of this month in Rome, perhaps he can reduce the level of American pressure to an administration hostile to him, to use this in the face of Putin’s pressure on him to abandon the Idlib crisis, and Syria will not be able to rebuild itself in a new form of Without fully restoring Idlib, which may take years.
The most that can be achieved at this stage is the implementation of the March 5, 2020 agreement between Putin and Erdogan, and the opening of the M4 road between Aleppo and Latakia, pending the return of normal relations between Turkey and Syria; Without it, the region will remain in constant turmoil, especially Syria, which paid the heaviest price in the longest and heaviest war in its long history.