If the army is sent to Maarab to arrest Geagea, this will happen…

Translation of “Lebanon Debyte”

Arab News published an article in which Dr. Dania Koleilat Al-Khatib, a specialist in US relations, published an article, warning against Hezbollah’s attempt to ignite the fuse between the army and the Lebanese Forces party.

Al-Khatib says in the article: “While the Lebanese are talking about Samir Geagea as a leader who dealt a strong slap to “Hezbollah” in the face, the reality may be more complicated than that. In a television interview, the journalist Marcel Ghanem told Geagea that the Secretary-General of “Hezbollah” Hassan Nasr God gave a popular push to Geagea on a silver platter, which Geagea immediately rejected.”

Al-Khatib added: “While people all over Lebanon raised pictures of Geagea as a leader who could stand against Hezbollah, he was not exactly the one who stood against the party. Before him, ordinary people stood in Khalde and Shuya. But the confrontation in Tayouneh happened just because people were tired of showing off. The power provided by “Hezbollah”.

She continues: “On May 7, 2008, Hezbollah demonstrated that it could use its military power to impose its will on anyone else. It imposed a change of government by force of arms and overturned decisions related to airport security. However, with the passage of time and the worsening of the situation, it fell The barrier of fear People are ready today to say no to “Hezbollah” and this is what prompted the confrontations in Khalde, Shawaya and Tayouneh.Nasrallah gave a two-hour speech targeting the Lebanese “forces” and accused them of being a militia that wanted to ignite a civil war.He also said in his speech that he would not let the blood of their martyrs go. In vain and a veiled threat that if justice is not done through the judiciary and the military, they will see what happens.”

She says, “The video clip clearly shows a soldier shooting an armed Hezbollah fighter who was a rocket-propelled grenade at a building about to be fired. If such a soldier is prosecuted, no soldier would dare to confront Hezbollah or any other armed militia.” Such a trial will weaken the army and support “Hezbollah.” The problem is that “Hezbollah” and the “Amal” movement have great influence over the military court, which is not under the authority of the army commander.

Al-Khatib believes that “while people are happy to celebrate what is seen as a slap to Hezbollah, it is important to determine whether there is a plan behind it.”

And she added, “If Geagea is framed with a case of sedition, as Hezbollah claims, and the army is sent to Maarab, where Geagea resides, to arrest him, this will lead to a clash between the army and the Lebanese Forces. This may be exactly what Hezbollah needs.” To defuse popular anger, people will no longer see “Hezbollah” as the enemy of law and order, but rather as the Lebanese Forces.

On the other hand, he noted, “this could be a great favor to Hezbollah’s ally, Gibran Bassil, who has seen his popularity plummet due to corruption charges and his unconditional alliance with Hezbollah.”

“While people were chanting for Geagea, saying, ‘No one protects Beirut except the Lebanese Forces’, if a confrontation erupts between the army and the Lebanese Forces, many will think twice about repeating this,” she says.

She continues: “When Hezbollah was subjected to pressure in the wake of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was and still is a close ally of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the confrontation with Israel made people forget those accusations (2006), and Hezbollah emerged stronger, as a hero who was able to stand in the The face of Israel Now that the investigation into the port explosion – which Hezbollah desperately wants to close – is running its course and is unlikely to be stopped, the internal clash may be exactly what they need to create the necessary distraction. This justifies Nasrallah’s claim that the greatest danger to Israel The Christians in Lebanon are the Lebanese Forces party and its leader.

Al-Khatib concluded by saying: “The army and the international community should realize all these factors and make sure that the soldiers who were performing their work are not pursued, that there is no confrontation between the Lebanese Forces and the army, and that there is no pressure on the judiciary to close the investigation into the port explosion.”

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