The Israeli (and global) economy is at a central juncture when it comes to macroeconomic development. If we are at a point where inflation is rising, interest rates are expected to rise and so are central banks, which should start reducing bond purchases. .
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is one of the indicators worth paying attention to in days of uncertainty because they form part of the hut from which estimates of expected economic development can be derived.
The Purchasing Managers ‘Index of Bank Hapoalim and the Purchasing Managers’ Organization rose by 4 points in September to a level of 58.1 points. This is the highest index level since 2018. All key index components, except delivery times, have moved to indicate an expansion in activity. The local orders component recorded a sharp increase of 10.5 points and reached a level of 68.5 points.
The export orders component rose to 52.2 points and moved to indicate an expansion in activity for the first time in three months.
The World Purchasing Managers’ Index, published by JPMorgan Bank, remained stable at 54.1 points in September. The level of the global index remained high relative to the long-term average. In the US, the ISM index rose 1.2 points to 61.1 points. The Purchasing Managers ‘Index in the Eurozone fell 2.8 points to 58.6 points. The Purchasing Managers’ Index in China (Caixin) rose 0.8 points to 50.0 points.
Bank Hapoalim economists analyzed the index and according to their analysis: “The Purchasing Managers’ Index indicates an increase in demand in Israel and around the world, an increase in production and employment. At the same time, we see a continued increase in the raw material prices component.
“The corona has had a positive effect on the demand for industrial products in the world, to some extent at the expense of services whose consumption has been limited.
“In Israel, this is less noticeable due to the stability of electricity prices. Electronics companies even enjoy the shortage of electronic components in the world. Industrial exports rose in July-September at an annual rate of 3.3%, following a 12.2% increase in April-June 2021.”
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