September forecast – negative returns of up to 3%

September 2021: First month of the year of negative return to provident funds.

The general provident funds achieved an average negative return of 0.6% as a result of declines in the stock markets abroad and in government (shekel) bonds in Israel. The range is between a negative return of 0.2% and a negative return of 1.4%.

from the beginning of the year: Impressive return to provident funds: about 9.4% in the general track and about 13.6% in the equity track.

Meitav Dash estimates that the provident funds and the large general education funds will show a nominal (gross) average negative return of 0.6% in September 2021. This expected return also represents the picture in the industry as a whole, with the yield range of all funds expected to range from a very negative return of 0.2% to a negative return of 1.4%.

In September, declines in world stock markets and declines in shekel (especially long-term) government bonds acted as a negative factor in fund yields. On the other hand, price increases in the Israeli stock market moderated the negative returns.

The world’s major stock markets have shown price declines in most indices

In the US: There was a negative trend, with the Dow down 4.3%, the S&P down 4.8% and the Nasdaq down 5.3%.

Exchange rates also fell in Europe: The German DAX was down 3.6%, the French CAC was down 2.4% and the Eurostoxx 50 was down 3.5%.

in Japan: The Nikkei index rose by 4.9%.

The global index of emerging markets fell by 4.3%.

All of these in currency terms of those countries.

On the other hand, the stock market in Israel recorded adequate price increases: the Tel Aviv 35 Index rose by 2.5%, the Tel Aviv 90 Index rose by 1.8%, the Tel Aviv 125 Index rose by 2.3% and the Over 60 Index rose by approx. -4.2%.

In the local corporate bond, the trend of price increases continued. The Tel Bond 20 index, the Tel Bond 40 index and the Tel Bond 60 index rose by 0.4%, 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The unrated bonds rose by 0.2%. H. General corporations rose by 0.4%.

The government bond index fell by 0.6%, while index-linked bonds rose by 0.1%, while shekel bonds fell by 1.2%, in light of rising inflation expectations.

Global stock markets have shown a positive trend.

In the US: Very strong price increases, with the 500 S&P index rising by 14.7%, the Dow Jones index rising by 10.6% and the Nasdaq index rising by 12.1%.

There was also a strong positive trend in Europe: the German DAX index rose by 11.2%, the French CAC rose by 17.4% and the Eurostoxx 50 rose by 13.9%.

in Japan: The Nikkei index rose by 7.7%.

The global index of emerging markets fell by 3.0%.

All of these in currency terms of those countries.

There was a strong positive trend in the stock market in Israel: The Tel Aviv 35 Index rose by 20.2%, the Tel Aviv 90 Index rose by 17.4%, the Tel Aviv 125 Index rose by 18.6% and the Over 60 Index rose by 18.3%.

A strong positive trend was also recorded in corporate bonds: the entire corporate bond index rose by 5.9%.

The government bond index has risen by only 0.6% since the beginning of the year.

 
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