Ghada Halawi wrote in “Nidaa Al-Watan”:
While everyone is calling for early parliamentary elections as a solution to get out of the political deadlock, it is remarkable that all the main political parties and forces have not officially announced their involvement in the electoral season, nor have they opened their doors in preparation for their participation. In response to the question, everyone seems ready to hold the elections today, before tomorrow, but a close inspection of the preparations does not indicate that, and whoever started preparing to engage in the electoral process is humbly and not with the momentum that confirms the official entry into the legal deadlines for holding the parliamentary elections on their constitutional date, which reinforces the impression as if Everyone is sure to postpone it for a thousand reasons and reasons. A parliamentary reference is quoted as saying that it is impossible to postpone the parliamentary elections even for one day in view of external pressures, and that the only solution that can be postponed because of it is for the government that will be formed to take certain steps on the path to addressing the crisis and reforms.
Those concerned with electoral affairs and observers on the ground note that the majority of parties are lukewarmly dealing with the elections in view of the current circumstances, which make holding the elections on their constitutional dates surrounded by many and branching difficulties. Only the forces of civil society mobilized all their capabilities, organized their logistical, practical and administrative situations, and began communicating with those concerned on the ground, without having specific candidates yet. What is remarkable here is that these forces, some of which began their work with organized advertising campaigns in all Lebanese regions, signed a pledge that their members would not be among the candidates, but rather mobilized all their energies in order to ensure the success of the personalities being nominated and whose names have not yet been decided.
The complexities that the parties face in these elections, which makes the majority in a difficult situation to maintain its position, while preliminary statistics indicate the decline of the “Free Patriotic Movement” on the ground in return for the “Lebanese Forces” relatively maintaining its previous status, while other Christian forces suffer a crisis in their streets and did not It is comforted by the resignation of its deputies from both the government and parliament, and what is meant here is the “Phalange Party” specifically. Electoral machines are still shy. The “Free Patriotic Movement”, which threatens to resign from the House of Representatives if a government is not formed, its statements do not match the reality of preparing for early elections. He knows that his popular presence has declined, but he is still reassured about the general result. The loss of a number of deputies, no more than four, will not change the reality of his likely victory in the largest parliamentary bloc. Despite his appointment as an electoral affairs advisor from the Tannourine region, the Free Patriotic Movement did not actually engage in the preparations for the electoral process, even though its sources confirm that the electoral plan is ready and the names of the candidates have been decided in most regions. and my party. As for his arch-rival, the “Lebanese Forces”, it is one of the most and first parties to launch its electoral preparations, and it does not suffer from a funding problem, unlike the “current” and “Marada”, for example. The FPM and the Forces meet together to confront any parliamentary debate within the parliamentary committees to amend the current election law, and because of it, the “forces” deputy, George Adwan, threatened to withdraw from the committee, and like him, the “current” deputies fought to defend the current law. What is remarkable is the absence of a number of MPs whose voice and attendance have been reduced, which raises questions about their ability to run in the elections in this session, such as MP Shamil Roukoz, for example, while others work hard in cooperation with civil society.
On the other hand, the “Future Movement” is living in an unreassuring situation in terms of popularity and finance. The movement and its leader wish that the elections would be postponed until the picture of its Gulf relations was cleared, especially with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which until now seems to be fighting its battle under the title of confronting it, and such operations have already begun. They are ripening in Akkar, the Bekaa, and the North, so that representative offices are opened for party forces at odds with the Future Movement that did not have a presence in the past.
As for the Shiite duo, they do not seem worried about their presence in their regions, even if they began to feel the restlessness that began to expand in the ranks of their fans. Therefore, they are studying the possibility of replacing parliamentary faces with others that are less provocative, and this situation applies to “Amal Movement” more than to “Hezbollah” “. The latter’s biggest problem lies in the difficulty of maintaining the parliamentary majority that it enjoys today. The “party”, which used to put all its financial capabilities and electoral machinery in order to help its allies in the various regions, will find it difficult to secure the necessary funding in view of the current financial crisis. The title of “Hezbollah’s” battle in the upcoming elections is to support the head of the “Free Patriotic Movement” Gibran Bassil and engineer his alliances in the regions, where “Hezbollah” enjoys influence, taking advantage of the mistakes of the past elections and alliances that did not constitute a lever for the “party” as desired.
The majority is not immune to the problem of financing. All parties and political forces will find it difficult to allocate the necessary amounts in the way that was previously obtained, even though the required amounts will not necessarily be the same. The March 14 forces, which ran in their last elections at a cost of nearly $4 billion, will not need half of this amount today, and despite that, it is difficult to secure it. The only financially comfortable one is the civil society, which is said to have allocated nearly 6 million dollars to start its field work, and the salaries of employees are all spent in US dollars.
If the elections take place, it will be a ruling different from the previous ones and more difficult, as everyone will face the problem of financing and the decline in his popularity, in addition to the political circumstances surrounding the formation of the government and the most difficult thing is that there are no gutters for funding through the state, while the parties’ eyes remain focused on the financing card and the fear that the parties will be granted exclusive distribution This card is in its areas, so the open electoral play begins at the expense of the poor. In sum, through their assurances, all parties confirm their readiness for the elections and act as if they will not obtain a ruling.