The International Monetary Fund lowers its global growth forecast for 2021.. What about Turkey? | Economie

The International Monetary Fund lowers its global growth forecast for 2021.. What about Turkey? | Economie
The International Monetary Fund lowers its global growth forecast for 2021.. What about Turkey? | Economie

12/10/2021|Last update: 10/12/202107:58 PM (Mecca)

The International Monetary Fund, on Tuesday, cut its forecast for global economic growth this year to 5.9%, from 6% in expectations last July and April, under pressure from the outbreak of new strains of the Corona virus.

In its latest report on the “Global Economic Prospects”, the Fund maintained its forecast for global growth of 4.9% for 2022, which is identical to its previous expectations.

The Fund attributed the reduction of global growth forecasts for 2021 to lower growth expectations in advanced economies than last July due to disruptions in supply chains, as well as in low-income countries where the pandemic is exacerbating.

“The recovery of the global economy is still underway, at a time when the pandemic is witnessing a new wave of infection. It seems that the cracks caused by the virus will last for a longer period, and the short-term manifestations of divergence will leave imprints on the medium-term performance,” he said.

He added, “Uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome is increasing, as a result of the rapid spread of the Delta strain and the risk of new mutated strains emerging.”

  • In the new report, the fund lowered its growth forecast advanced economies to 5.2%, from 5.6% in July.
  • The report raised its forecast slightly for growth emerging economies to 6.4%, from 6.3% forecast in July.
  • The report said that US economy It is expected to grow by 6% this year, down from its 7% forecast last July.
  • The fund raised its forecast for growth in Euro-zone to 5%, from 4.6% in its previous forecast last July.
  • The fund lowered its growth forecast In Asia Overall, to 7.2%, from 7.5% previously forecast.
  • He maintained his growth forecast in Middle East and Central Asia at 4.1%.
  • As for expectations for the Chinese economy For the current year, the report revised growth for the current year to 8% from 8.1% in last July’s forecast, and from 5.7% to 5.6% for 2022.

Saudi Arabia

The International Monetary Fund said it expects Saudi Arabia, which is the largest economy in the Arab world, to achieve economic growth of 2.8 percent this year.

In July, the fund forecast GDP growth of 2.4 percent in 2021.

The IMF said – in its latest forecast for the world economy – that the Saudi growth rate next year is expected to reach 4.8%, without a change in its previous forecast.

The Kingdom’s economy contracted by 4.8% last year, affected by two double shocks: the Corona pandemic and the decline in oil prices.

Last month, the Saudi Ministry of Finance forecast 2.6% growth this year, followed by 7.5% expansion in 2022.

Turkey

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for the growth of the Turkish economy this year from 5.8% to 9%, and kept it at 3.3% for the year 2022.

And the Turkish economy grew positively by 1.8% during the past year, to record one of the few cases around the world, which avoided deflation, in the year of the Corona pandemic.

The Turkish economy grew 21.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, recovering strongly from a sharp slowdown a year ago driven by the restrictions of the Corona pandemic.

The Fund said – in its October World Economic Outlook report issued today, Tuesday – that the average inflation in Turkey will reach 17% for the current year, and 15.4% for 2022.

 
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